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Summary: The following key questions face uranium enrichment decisionmakers: When will additional enrichment capacity, beyond existing and planned facilities, be needed? Are there options for meeting short-term and long-term excess enrichment demand? and How can additional long-term enrichment capacity be provided? The answers to these questions are affected by a number of factors and uncertainties, including overall electrical demand and nuclear power growth rate, electrical power and uranium availability for the enrichment process, and the percentage of the foreign market this country may want to obtain. When additional enrichment capacity beyond current plans will be needed depends largely on nuclear power growth, the United States' share of the foreign enrichment services market, and the use of existing plants and supplies. If there is a uranium shortage and assuming the United States maintains 35 percent of the foreign market, the United States will need future enrichment plants by the early 1990s. There are several ways that the Department of Energy could meet or reduce short-term enrichment demand: using its enrichment uranium stockpile and material from retired nuclear weapons, increasing the tails assay, and allowing a contract adjustment period. The United States has only one option for meeting long-term domestic and foreign demand--build additional plants. The two primary issues affecting decisions on future plants are: (1) the extent that the Government should assist private enrichment groups; and (2) the technology that will be used.
