Future Years Defense Program: Optimistic Estimates Lead to Billions in Overprogramming

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Report Type	Reports and Testimonies
Report Date	Jan. 19, 1995
Report No.	T-NSIAD-95-83
Subject	Cost overruns Defense budgets Defense cost control Defense economic analysis Defense procurement Financial management Future budget projections Presidential budgets CIM Comanche Helicopter DDG-51 Destroyer DOD Corporate Information Management Initiative DOD Defense Management Report Savings Initiative DOD Future Years Defense Program F-22 Aircraft FYDP Tri-Service Standoff Attack Missile Cost analysis

Summary:

The Future Years Defense Program (FYDP) is a classified database of current and projected force structure, cost, and personnel levels approved by the Secretary of Defense. The Defense Department (DOD) makes projections far enough ahead to enable it to estimate future implications of current decisions. GAO's review of the 1995-99 FYDP published in July 1994 revealed a potential imbalance between programs sought by DOD and available funds of $150 billion or more, although the President and DOD have agreed to changes that could correct some of the imbalance. GAO has been reporting on the problem of overprogramming since the mid-1980s when DOD funding began to decline. GAO's work since that time has shown that DOD has had an imbalance between programs and projected funds. This overprogramming has tended to obscure defense priorities and delay hard decisions and trade-offs that must be made if available funds and defense programs are to be balanced.

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Future Years Defense Program: Optimistic Estimates Lead to Billions in Overprogramming