Summary: Federal budget outlay estimates generally swing between longfalls, or underestimates in the budget year, and shortfalls, or overestimates in the current year. The budget year estimates reflect the administration's concern about the growing deficit and the need to hold down spending. The shift to a shortfall, or overestimate in the current year's estimates (12 months later), reflects the administration's assessment of actual financial needs to carry out legislation enacted by Congress. The estimating process is flexible and changing and can be influenced by a number of variables. Many of these variables are uncontrollable, such as historic upward bias (the past tendency to overestimate). Budget data must be accurate to be useful and controllable factors should be of concern to improve outlay estimates.
As a result of increased interest in outlay estimates, both the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Congressional Budget Office are striving to achieve more accurate estimates. GAO found that $76.4 billion in outlays was not included in fiscal year 1977 government-wide net outlays of $402.8 billion. These outlays included both offsets from collections and receipts from business transactions with the public and outlays of off-budget federal entities. Estimates of offsetting collections and offsetting receipts have not been reliable. The current method of presenting these transactions as offsets against budget authority and outlays distorts budget numbers and makes the budget unnecessarily complex.
