Summary: Information the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides monthly to Congress on estimated remaining costs for past disasters is neither accurate nor timely. Headquarters and regional offices could not agree on the amounts of funds obligated to date, and differences totaled nearly $250 million. FEMA headquarters staff responsible for reconciling differences initially failed to determine the cause and make needed corrections. It is difficult to estimate the number, severity, and timing of future disasters. FEMA uses the five-year annual average level of obligations for past disasters and allows the five-year annual average decline at a constant rate (eight months) during the fiscal year. A better way to estimate the cost and timing of future disasters would be for FEMA to use actual monthly data on the estimated costs of disasters that have occurred during the last five years. FEMA's recent efforts to expedite closeout of its funding activities for past disasters have had a significant impact on FEMA's rate of obligating disaster funds. At the end of 1997, FEMA closed funding activities for past disasters; yet 419 old disasters remained open with projected costs to FEMA of more than $3 billion.
