Summary: Infectious diseases place an enormous burden on the developing world, killing more than 17 million people a year and afflicting hundreds of millions of others. If polio, measles, and other infectious diseases were eliminated, the United States could save hundreds of millions of dollars, primarily because it would no longer need to vaccinate U.S. schoolchildren against polio and measles. Although the cost estimates and time frames developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) for eradicating some infectious diseases are based on firm information, others are more speculative because complete data are unavailable on target populations, disease prevalence, and other factors. Other diseases also pose health threats to the United States and could be potential candidates for eradication. Four diseases were frequently mentioned in the literature and by experts whom GAO interviewed: rubella, mumps, hepatitis B, and Hemophilus influenzae type b. WHO officials said that although it is technically possible to eliminate these diseases with existing vaccines, it is unlikely that other diseases will be considered for eradication before success is achieved with currently targeted diseases. GAO estimates that the United States has saved nearly $17 billion so far from the eradication of smallpox in 1977. Experts agree that several lessons can be learned from the smallpox effort, but the main lesson is that a disease can actually be eradicated. However, they caution that smallpox has limitations as a model for other diseases because it has characteristics that are uniquely amenable to eradication.
