Summary: This report updates earlier GAO simulations of the long-term economic impact of federal budget policy. GAO first used a macroeconomic model in 1992 to simulate the effects of alternative fiscal policy paths in promoting or inhibiting long-term economic growth. The results supported the view that deficit reduction is the key to the nation's long-term economic health. In 1995, GAO's updated simulations indicated that a path of "no action," under which current policies remained unchanged, could not be sustained over the long term. GAO identified three forces driving the long-term growth of the budget deficit: health spending, Social Security, and interest costs. This report updates GAO's work to address the long-term budget outlook following passage of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. GAO uses its long-term economic growth model to simulate the path resulting from the act through the year 2050 assuming no further policy changes ("no action"). GAO also presents several alternative fiscal policy paths to illustrate how overall fiscal policy changes can affect future budgetary and economic outcomes.
