Summary: This report evaluates national intelligence estimates prepared by the U.S. intelligence community on the threat to the United States posed by foreign missile systems. The main judgment of national intelligence estimate 95-19 (Emerging Missile Threats to North American During the Next 15 Year)--"No country, other than the major declared nuclear powers, will develop or otherwise acquire a ballistic missile in the next 15 years that could threaten the contiguous 48 states or Canada"--was worded with clear certainty. GAO believes that this level of certainty is overstated. The estimate also had other shortcomings. It did not (1) quantify the certainty level of nearly all of its key judgments, (2) identify explicitly its critical assumptions, and (3) develop alternative futures. However, the estimate did acknowledge dissenting views from several agencies and also noted what information the U.S. intelligence community does not know that bears upon the foreign missile threat. The 1993 national intelligence estimates met more of the standards than 95-19 did. National intelligence estimate 95-19 worded its judgments on foreign missile threats very differently than did the 1993 national intelligence estimate, even though the judgments in all three national intelligence estimates were not inconsistent with each other. That is, although the judgments were not synonymous, upon careful reading, they did not contradict each other.
