The Deficit and the Economy: An Update of Long-Term Simulations

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Report Type	Reports and Testimonies
Report Date	April 26, 1995
Report No.	AIMD/OCE-95-119
Subject	Balanced budgets Budget cuts Budget deficit Budget surplus Deficit reduction Econometric modeling Economic analysis Economic growth Fiscal policies Future budget projections Medicaid Medicare Social Security Program

Summary:

This report updates a 1992 GAO study (GAO/OCG-92-2) on the long-term economic impact of the deficit, which concluded that deficit reduction was the key to America's long-term economic health. GAO noted that a path of inaction could not be sustained over the long run. If policymakers failed to take the initiatives, the economic consequences would force action. GAO identified three forces driving the long-term growth of budget deficits: health spending, interest costs, and--after 2010--Social Security. In its current report, GAO uses a long-term economic growth model to simulate three possible fiscal paths through the year 2025: (1) no action on the deficit; (2) "muddling through" with deficits at three percent of gross domestic product, roughly approximating deficits of recent years; and (3) reaching a balanced budget in 2002 and sustaining it.

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The Deficit and the Economy: An Update of Long-Term Simulations