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Illegal Aliens: Despite Data Limitations, Current Methods Provide Better Population Estimates

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Report Type Reports and Testimonies
Report Date Aug. 5, 1993
Report No. PEMD-93-25
Subject
Summary:

During the 1980s, the methods used to measure the size and flow of illegal aliens were refined to yield a narrower range of estimates than was the case in a 1982 GAO evaluation (GAO/IPE-82-9). As a result, GAO projects the size of the U.S. illegal alien population during 1990 at no more than 3.4 million, a figure considerably below the 5.5 million maximum that the Census Bureau projected. Estimates of the gross annual flow of illegal aliens are more sketchy. For example, according to Immigration and Naturalization Service figures, the total inflow in 1988 was put at 2.3 million people. Owing to a high potential error in this calculation, however, GAO believes that the actual inflow could have ranged anywhere from 1.3 million to 3.9 million people. The main reason that this inflow does not translate into a larger illegal alien population is that much of it represents short-term visits to the United States.

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