Summary: In recent years, several proposals have been introduced in Congress that would boost the acreage designated as wilderness in Utah. A 1990 study by the Western Economic Analysis Center, done at the request of the Utah Association of Counties, projects that Utah's economy would lose more than $13 billion if one such proposal becomes law. In addition, some Utah ranchers and residents are concerned that designating an area as wilderness will reduce livestock grazing. GAO concludes that the center's study makes unreasonable assumptions and uses flawed methodology. The $13 billion figure cited is a loss equal to about half of Utah's 1988 or 1989 gross state product and assumes that all mining, grazing, and recreation would cease when the lands are designated as wilderness. The study's methodology is flawed because, among other things, it inflates the total effects of wilderness designation by not discounting future cash flows and by double-counting projected lost revenues. The limitations of this study led GAO to conclude that the effect on Utah's economy of designating more acreage as wilderness has not been adequately quantified. Likewise, the effect of wilderness designation on livestock grazing in Utah has not been quantified.
