Summary: Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO: (1) evaluated efforts by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to carry out the role assigned to it by statutory law; (2) described federal activities to assist state and local governments with earthquake response planning; and (3) discussed why a prediction system has not been developed.
GAO found that FEMA, the lead agency for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, needs to do more to fulfill the requirements of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977. GAO believes that the newly formed FEMA Earthquake Policy Review Group can provide needed direction to federal agencies in the program by improving interagency planning, budgeting, and evaluation. Progress has been slow in developing earthquake response plans at the state and local levels and in the private sector, and future progress will depend upon adequate FEMA direction and upon the resources available to those preparing the actual plans. GAO also found that an operational earthquake prediction system, an objective of the act, has not been developed, because necessary technological advances have not occurred. Although current monitoring systems can produce warnings, but not predictions, of an impending earthquake, further basic research is needed before reliable short-term predictions are feasible.
