Kosovo's Future Status: Alternative Models (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
May 26, 1999 |
| Report Number |
RL30187 |
| Report Type |
Report |
| Authors |
Francis T. Miko, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
The current focus of U.S. and NATO attention is on military and diplomatic efforts to achieve
a Serb
pull-back of forces from Kosovo, deploy an international force there, and return Kosovar Albanian
refugees to their homeland. The Administration and Congress have paid less public attention to the
resolution of Kosovo's long-term future, but this issue may move to center-stage in the next phase
of discussions. Ultimately, congressional support for continued U.S. military involvement may be
linked to the viability of the settlement being pursued.
The United States has a number of interests relative to Kosovo's future status, including
providing protection and justice for Kosovo's Albanian and Serb populations, encouraging the
establishment of a new democratic government in Serbia, enhancing security and avoiding turmoil
in neighboring countries, preserving NATO credibility and cohesion, avoiding harmful precedents
and unintended consequences, keeping Western relations with Russia on a constructive path, and
limiting the size and duration of the U.S. commitment to enforcement of a settlement.
Several alternative models for Kosovo's status have been discussed informally. One possibility
is restoration of Kosovar autonomy within Yugoslavia. Proponents of autonomy
argue the virtue
of not requiring border changes that could rekindle other border disputes in Europe. The main
concern is that it may not give Albanian refugees the necessary confidence to return, in which case
ethnic cleansing will have succeeded and the international community will be left with the
consequences.
Another possibility is an international protectorate (involving de-facto
separation from
Yugoslavia but not spelling out its ultimate status). It could be placed under United Nations,
NATO, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), or other organization
supervision, combined with protection from a credible international force. Proponents argue that
Kosovar refugees would be able to return safely, the Yugoslavia government would be deterred from
further aggression, and troublesome precedents would not be set. Critics note that this outcome
would postpone but not permanently settle the status of Kosovo.
Independence is an option advocated mainly by ethnic Albanians. Outside
observers believe
that independence would be unworkable at the present time. Without adequate preparation, it could
sink Kosovo into chaos and heighten tensions in the Balkans. Partition , with
Serbia keeping part
and the rest becoming a protectorate, independent, or attached to Albania, has been advocated by
some observers, as the most realistic solution given their belief that Serbs and Albanian are unlikely
to be able to live together any time in the foreseeable future. Finally, Kosovo's status could be left
to a wider Balkan Peace Conference , to deal with all of the sources of conflict and
backwardness
in the region. Some think it is the only way of breaking the cycle of conflict and creating lasting
peace in the region, given that the issues and problems are so interrelated. Skeptics argue that
expecting to be able to solve all of the Balkan problems at once is unrealistic and making Kosovo
hostage to a wider settlement would reduce the prospects of ever returning normalcy to the province.
