Syria: Regime Change, Transition, and U.S. Policy (CRS Report for Congress)
| Release Date |
Revised Dec. 13, 2024 |
| Report Number |
IN12469 |
| Report Type |
Insight |
| Authors |
Christopher M. Blanchard |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
| Older Revisions |
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Summary:
Rapid offensives by Syrian armed groups opposed to the government of Bashar Al Asad (alt. Assad)
forced Asad’s resignation and exile to Russia on December 8, 2024. This inflection point in Syria’s post2011 civil war marked the end of decades of Asad-family rule.
Advances since late November by anti-Asad groups left much of western Syria (including Damascus and
most other major cities, Figure 1) in the hands of different forces: a coalition led by the U.S.-designated
Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the Turkey-backed Syrian National
Army (SNA) coalition, and southern Syria-based armed groups. Groups (including Alawite minorities)
with historical ties to the Asad regime maintain a presence in some western coastal areas where Russian
air and naval bases are located. Eastern Syria remains largely under the control of the U.S.-backed,
Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the U.S.-backed Syrian Free Army, both U.S.
counterterrorism partners against remnants of the Islamic State (IS/ISIS) that once dominated parts of
Syria and Iraq.
Many Syrians are welcoming the end of Asad’s rule and opportunities to reunite families and release longheld prisoners. At the same time, Syrians and outside observers note that considerable political, economic,
and security challenges lie ahead.
President Joseph Biden called Asad’s ouster “a fundamental act of justice” and “a moment of historic
opportunity.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “the United States reaffirms its full support for a
Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition” that “should lead to credible, inclusive, and nonsectarian governance that meets international standards of transparency and accountability, consistent
with the principles of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254.” President Biden said the U.S.
government would protect U.S. citizens and personnel in Syria along with U.S. regional partners, and
would remain vigilant against a possible IS resurgence. Approximately 900 U.S. military personnel are
present in eastern and southern Syria, conducting counterterrorism missions against IS remnants and
supporting the SDF’s detention of more than 9,000 IS prisoners and administration of camps for more
than 40,000 individuals from formerly IS-held areas. U.S. Central Command conducted dozens of
airstrikes against IS targets in central Syria as Asad’s forces withdrew. The United States suspended
operations at the U.S. Embassy in Damascus in 2012; the Czech Republic serves as the U.S. protecting power in Syria. President-elect Donald Trump made statements as Asad’s government collapsed, calling
for the United States to refrain from involvement in Syria’s conflict.
