LegiStorm

Summary:

Kazakhstan, a U.S. partner in areas such as counterterrorism, regional security, and nuclear nonproliferation, is a strategically situated country with significant hydrocarbon and mineral resources. It shares borders with Russia to the north, the People’s Republic of China (PRC, or China) to the east, and the Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to the south. Although sparsely populated, Kazakhstan is the world’s ninth-largest country by land area. It is the most economically developed country in Central Asia, with rich reserves of hydrocarbons and a range of minerals and significant potential to develop the agricultural sector. Previously a constituent republic of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan became independent in 1991. Since then, the authoritarian government has introduced market reforms, developed the energy sector, and moved to diversify the country’s economy. Kazakhstan pursues a “multi-vector” foreign policy, seeking to balance relations with major powers while actively participating in international organizations. Following unprecedented unrest in January 2022, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has moved to consolidate power while his country confronts difficult geopolitical and economic dynamics in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Kazakhstan retains close military, political, economic, and cultural ties to Russia, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ongoing repercussions for the country. Kazakhstan has avoided endorsing Russia’s invasion and provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, and some observers note that the Kazakhstan government has reacted uneasily to Russian statements, including by President Vladimir Putin, questioning Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This position has led some analysts to suggest that Kazakhstan is moving away from Russia’s influence, although the two countries continue to actively engage with each other. Some observers posit that China is consolidating its influence in Kazakhstan in response. Kazakhstan’s interest in diversifying its diplomatic and economic relations may present new opportunities for U.S. engagement. Potential areas to expand U.S. relations with Kazakhstan and congressional action include the following: • Trade. Trade between the United States and Kazakhstan is limited, and is governed by Section 402 of the Trade Act of 1974 (P.L. 93-618), the so-called Jackson-Vanik amendment, which denies permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to certain former nonmarket economies. Exempting a given country from JacksonVanik requires Congress to pass relevant legislation. The Biden Administration supports repealing JacksonVanik applicability for Kazakhstan. In the 118th Congress, H.R. 3611 and S. 2748 would authorize the President to extend PNTR to Kazakhstan. • Security cooperation. Some analysts and U.S. officials see new opportunities for expanding security cooperation between the United States and Kazakhstan in light of the war in Ukraine. Nonproliferation has historically been and continues to be a significant area of U.S.-Kazakhstan cooperation. • Resources. Although Kazakhstan has significant reserves of hydrocarbons, the country faces periodic domestic energy crises resulting from high demand coupled with infrastructural deficiencies. Kazakhstan is rich in critical minerals, and experts assess that it has significant renewable energy potential. • Regional connectivity. Promoting regional connectivity has long been a U.S. policy priority in Central Asia, in part to strengthen regional countries’ economic and political sovereignty. Some analysts suggest that regional connectivity in Central Asia has taken on added significance in light of the war in Ukraine as Central Asian governments seek to diversify their economic and security relationships away from Russia.