LegiStorm

Summary:

The unemployment rate is a vital measure of economic performance. A falling unemployment rate generally occurs alongside rising gross domestic product (GDP), higher wages, and higher industrial production. The government can generally achieve a lower unemployment rate using expansionary fiscal or monetary policy, so it might be assumed that policymakers would consistently target a lower unemployment rate using these policies. Part of the reason policymakers do not revolves around the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. In general, economists have found that when the unemployment rate drops below a certain level, referred to as the natural rate, the inflation rate will tend to increase and continue to rise until the unemployment rate returns to its natural rate. Alternatively, when the unemployment rate rises above the natural rate, the inflation rate will tend to decelerate. The natural rate of unemployment is the level of unemployment consistent with sustainable economic growth. An unemployment rate below the natural rate suggests that the economy is growing faster than its maximum sustainable rate, which places upward pressure on wages and prices in general leading to increased inflation. The opposite is true if the unemployment rate rises above the natural rate, downward pressure is placed on wages and prices in general leading to decreased inflation. Wages make up a significant portion of the costs of goods and services, therefore upward or downward pressure on wages pushes average prices in the same direction. Two other sources of variation in the rate of inflation are inflation expectations and unexpected changes in the supply of goods and services. Inflation expectations play a significant role in the actual level of inflation, because individuals incorporate their inflation expectations when making price-setting decisions or when bargaining for wages. A change in the availability of goods and services used as inputs in the production process (e.g., oil) generally impacts the final price of goods and services in the economy, and therefore changing the rate of inflation. The natural rate of unemployment is not immutable and fluctuates alongside changes within the economy. For example, the natural rate of unemployment is affected by changes in the demographics, educational attainment, and work experience of the labor force; institutions (e.g., apprenticeship programs) and public policies (e.g., unemployment insurance); changes in productivity growth; and contemporaneous and previous level of long-term unemployment. Following the 2007-2009 recession, the actual unemployment rate remained significantly elevated compared with estimates of the natural rate of unemployment for multiple years. However, the average inflation rate decreased by less than one percentage point during this period despite predictions of negative inflation rates based on the natural rate model. Likewise, inflation has recently shown no sign of accelerating as unemployment has approached the natural rate. Some economists have used this as evidence to abandon the concept of a natural rate of unemployment in favor of other alternative indicators to explain fluctuations in inflation. Some researchers have largely upheld the natural rate model while looking at broader changes in the economy and the specific consequences of the 2007-2009 recession to explain the modest decrease in inflation after the recession. One potential explanation involves the limited supply of financing available to businesses after the breakdown of the financial sector. Another explanation cites changes in how inflation expectations are formed following changes in how the Federal Reserve responds to economic shocks and the establishment of an unofficial inflation target. Others researchers have cited the unprecedented increase in long-term unemployment that followed the recession, which significantly decreased bargaining power among workers.