Is Violent Crime in the United States Increasing? (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
Oct. 29, 2015 |
| Report Number |
R44259 |
| Report Type |
Report |
| Authors |
Nathan James, Analyst in Crime Policy |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
On August 31, 2015, the New York Times ran an article with the headline "Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities." The story highlighted double-digit percentage increases in homicide rates in several cities, and came on the heels of reports from other media outlets of recent spikes in violent crime in cities across the country. Accounts of rising violent crime rates in some cities have generated speculation about whether the United States is in the midst of a new crime wave.
Overall, homicide and violent crime rates have been trending downward for more than two decades, and both rates are at historic lows. An analysis comparing 2014 and 2015 homicide data from the nation's 60 most populous cities suggests that violent crime is not increasing. Overall, reported homicides were up 16% in 2015, but a majority of cities (44 of 60) have not seen a statistically significant increase in homicides. The general consensus is that it is too early to draw any conclusions about the reversal of long-term trends. Also, even if homicide and violent crime rates do increase this year, it may not portend a break in the long-term trend. Even though both rates have been on a downward trend since 1990, there were years where either the homicide rate or violent crime rate increased.
There are several short-term factors that might help explain some of the reported upticks in violent crime across the country.
Year-to-year changes in crime rates can be subject to random fluctuations.
Crime rates are subject to seasonal effects.
Many cities are experiencing increases from historically low levels of crime.
Percentage change in reported crimes is a relative measure and is sensitive to magnitude.
While it might be too early to make any definitive conclusions about whether violent crime is on the rise, several commentators have speculated as to why some cities are experiencing spikes in violent crimes. Suggested explanations include the following:
The "Ferguson effect" (i.e., in the wake of a spate of high-profile officer-involved deaths, police have become reluctant to engage in proactive policing, thereby emboldening criminals).
Law enforcement is facing a legitimacy problem in some communities where residents feel that they are not treated fairly by the police, and this may mean that people are more likely to take matters into their own hands when conflicts arise.
The increase in violence can be attributed to battles between gangs for control of drug turf or released violent offenders committing new crimes.
The recent discussion about the increases in violent crime in some cities might raise the question of whether there is a need for more "real time" nationwide crime statistics. More frequent and consistent crime data might be able to provide greater insight into crime trends. However, there are logistical issues involved with collecting and reporting timely and accurate crime statistics from the nation's approximately 18,000 law enforcement agencies.
