Uncertainty in Financial Projections of Social Security (CRS Report for Congress)
| Release Date |
May 14, 2015 |
| Report Number |
IN10275 |
| Report Type |
Insight |
| Authors |
Meyerson, Noah |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
The report of the Social Security Board of Trustees contains the federal government's official financial projections for the Social Security program. Section 201(c) of the Social Security Act mandates the annual report and names the trustees: the commissioner of Social Security, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and two members of the public. The trustees specify the assumptions about future demographic and economic trends used in the forecast and have final authority over the projections and the wording of the report. However, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OACT) of the Social Security Administration (SSA) advises the trustees on the assumptions, drafts report language, and develops and runs the computer models that produce the forecasts. The financial outlook for Social Security has been the subject of much analysis and debate. Recently, three researchers--Gary King, Konstantin Kashin, and Samir Soneji--criticized OACT in two academic papers and in statements to the press, suggesting that the projections are unduly optimistic and that the projection process lacks transparency.
