LegiStorm

Summary:

In early February, the Nigerian government controversially delayed its scheduled elections by six weeks, to March 28, based on security concerns, drawing criticism from the political opposition and the Obama Administration, among others. The delay has heightened concerns about tensions around the polls and raised questions about alleged political interference in the electoral process. Two weeks prior to the delay, in late January, Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to Nigeria to stress U.S. views about the importance of the elections, and to extend condolences to the families of victims of recent attacks by the violent extremist group Boko Haram. Kerry reiterated a U.S. commitment to support counterterrorism efforts in Nigeria, a topic of particular congressional interest in the past year. His visit highlighted the extent of U.S. concern with current political and security challenges facing Nigeria, which is Africa's most populous country and largest economy, and which routinely ranks among the top African recipients of U.S. bilateral foreign aid. The potential for violence around the upcoming elections is high, given a close presidential race and widespread frustration in northern Nigeria with the government's performance. Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan faces a serious challenge from an opposition coalition that appears to have extensive support in the north, and which also seeks to draw support away from the ruling party in central and southern states. Pre-election assessments in January had raised concerns about the status of election preparations, but previous calls for a delay had been dismissed by the election commission. The opposition had raised concerns that hundreds of thousands of Nigerians from the northeast states most affected by Boko Haram might be unable to vote, but had pressed for the elections to be held on schedule. Observers have cautioned that violent protests could follow if the polls are not viewed as credible—allegations of fraud and rigging have plagued past elections, and opinion polls indicated that public confidence in the electoral process is low. These political tensions, overlaid atop simmering communal and ethno-religious violence in parts of Nigeria, and alongside Boko Haram efforts to foment further instability, have raised concerns about the country's trajectory in the coming months. Nigeria also faces mounting economic pressures, and the government is struggling to balance competing budget demands amid a sharp drop in the global price of oil, a primary source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Since attracting international headlines with the kidnapping of some 270 schoolgirls in April 2014, Boko Haram has commenced a territorial offensive in the northeast that Nigerian security forces have struggled to reverse. Boko Haram's attacks are not limited to the northeast, and the group is increasingly active in neighboring countries. By some estimates, more than 5,500 people were killed by the group in 2014, making Boko Haram one of the world's deadliest terrorist groups. Boko Haram raids and bombings in early 2015 have claimed hundreds of lives. Boko Haram's actions have attracted increasing attention from Members of Congress, and the 2014 abductions and other attacks have spurred calls for new efforts to counter the group in various hearings, statements, and legislation, including H.Res. 46, H.Res. 53, and S.Res. 65 in the 114th Congress. The group's March 7 pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State is likely to elicit concern. The Obama Administration seeks to support a regional strategy to counter Boko Haram, amid apparent strains in the bilateral relationship over Nigeria's counterterrorism approach and its effectiveness. Nigeria and its neighbors have repeatedly committed to forming a joint force to fight Boko Haram, but cooperation among the countries has been limited. Signs of improved coordination among the neighbors—Cameroon, Chad, and Niger—may offer opportunities for the United States and other donors to enhance regional containment of the threat.