LegiStorm

Summary:

The Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program provides monthly benefits to retired or disabled workers and their family members and to the family members of deceased workers. These monthly benefits constitute a substantial portion of income for a large segment of recipients. The OASDI program is financed primarily by payroll taxes on covered earnings up to an annual limit, as well as federal income taxes paid by some beneficiaries on a portion of their OASDI benefits. OASDI program revenues are invested in federal government securities held by the Federal Old-Age Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Federal Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds, where they earn interest. The interest earned on assets in the trust funds provides a third stream of revenue to the OASDI program. The OASDI Trust Funds are overseen by a Board of Trustees, which is composed of six members: the Secretary of the Treasury, who is the managing trustee; the Secretary of Labor; the Secretary of Health and Human Services; the Commissioner of Social Security; and two public trustees, who are appointed by the President with advice and consent of the Senate. By law, the assets of the OASDI Trust Funds may be invested only in federal government securities issued by the Secretary of the Treasury. Although the Managing Trustee may invest in U.S. securities that are sold on the open market (marketable securities) if it is deemed in the public interest to do so, in practice, the OASDI Trust Funds' assets are invested in nonmarketable U.S. securities, known as special issues. The practice of investing solely in special issues has led the Board of Trustees to effectively adopt the principles of (1) nonintervention in the private economy, (2) security, (3) neutrality, and (4) minimal management. Although not explicitly codified in the Social Security Act, these principles have provided a framework to guide the trustees in their investment operations. At the beginning of 2018, the trust funds reported asset reserves of around $2.9 trillion, which represents the projected peak value of the funds. The OASDI program's total costs are projected to exceed its total revenues, due largely to the aging of the baby boomers, thus requiring the trust funds to draw down their assets to pay scheduled benefits. The trustees expect this trend to continue indefinitely, with the trust funds' reserves reaching depletion in 2034. To extend the trust funds' solvency, some argue the trust funds' assets should be invested in equities (i.e., stocks sold on the open market). The main argument for this approach is that equities have historically produced higher rates of return, on average, than U.S. securities, which are the trust funds' only investment option under current law. Proposals favoring equity investment seek to earn higher rates of return for the trust funds than provided by special issues. However, the higher average rates of return associated with equity investing come with more risk. Investing the trust funds in equities would expose them to a higher degree of volatility than the current investment practices. The trustees estimate that bringing OASDI program revenues into balance with program costs would require an immediate permanent increase of 2.78 percentage points in the payroll tax rate, from 12.40% to 15.18%, a permanent reduction in benefits of about 17%, or some combination of the two approaches. Although investing in equities may result in a higher return on the trust funds' assets, such a proposal would, by itself, have little effect on the program's long-term outlook, and it would have budgetary implications by requiring the immediate liquidation of the trust funds' existing assets. Because the trust funds are projected to be depleted in 2034 and because costs are expected to exceed revenues indefinitely, any proposal to invest the trust funds' asset in equities without first bringing the OASDI program into balance would result in little change to the program's solvency. Should Congress pass legislation that reduces the actuarial deficit, research indicates that including equity in the trust funds' investment practices could improve the program's financial position. This practice, if enacted, would disregard several of the trust funds' investment principles.