Recent Violent Crime Trends in the United States (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
June 20, 2018 |
| Report Number |
R45236 |
| Report Type |
Report |
| Authors |
Nathan James |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
Media accounts of increasing violent crime rates, especially homicides, in some cities raise broad
concerns about decreasing levels of public safety.
This report provides an analysis of changes in violent crime since 1960, with a focus on changes
from 2014 to 2016 in violent crime and homicide rates in the 48 largest cities in the United States
for which violent crime and homicide data were submitted to the Federal Bureau of
Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program. The results of the analysis suggest the
following:
At the national level, violent crime and homicide rates increased from 2014 to
2015 and again from 2015 to 2016, but both rates remain near historical lows.
Violent crime and homicide rates for the 48 largest cities in the United States
with available data generally followed national-level trends, with some
exceptions. For example, violent crime rates in cities of 500,000-999,999 people
and 250,000-499,999 people decreased from 2014 to 2015, and the homicide rate
in small cities of 50,000-99,999 people decreased from 2015 to 2016.
Some of the largest cities in the United States saw increases in violent crime
rates, homicide rates, or both from 2014 to 2015 and/or 2015 to 2016. For some
of these cities, violent crime or homicide rates were the highest they have been in
the past 20 years.
Recent increases in violent crime and homicide in large cities have received a
great deal of attention, but in smaller communities violent crime and homicide
rates also increased from 2014 to 2015 and again from 2015 to 2016, although
not as much as in the largest cities.
The “Ferguson effect” is one of the more widely discussed, and controversial, explanations for
the recent increases in violent crime. It refers to the assertion that crime has increased recently
because police are avoiding proactive policing tactics out of fear of repercussions for the use of
aggressive tactics. There is a small but growing body of literature on the Ferguson effect, and the
evidence is mixed. For example, recent research conducted by a Johns Hopkins University
sociologist found some evidence of a post-Ferguson decrease in arrests and a post-Ferguson
increase in crime in Baltimore. However, the research did not reveal a causal link between the
decreasing arrests and increasing crime. Additionally, studies of the Ferguson effect have
generally focused on a single state or specific cities, which make the results of these studies nongeneralizable
to other jurisdictions.
Policymakers might consider various options to assist cities that have seen an increase in violent
crime and homicide rates. These include providing additional assistance to local governments
through existing grant programs such as the Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant,
Byrne Criminal Justice Innovation, and Community Oriented Policing Services’ hiring programs;
authorizing and appropriating funding for a new grant program that would provide assistance to
local governments to implement evidence-based violent crime prevention programs; or providing
additional resources to allow the Department of Justice to expand its National Public Safety
Partnership.
