LegiStorm

Summary:

The United States, partner countries, and the Afghan government are coping with a resilient Taliban-led insurgency after the December 2014 transition to a smaller international mission consisting primarily of training and advising the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). The number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, which peaked at about 100,000 in June 2011, stands at about 9,800, of which most are assigned to the 13,000-person NATO-led "Resolute Support Mission" to train, assist, and advise the ANDSF. About 2,000 of the U.S. contingent are involved in combat against Al Qaeda and associated terrorist groups, including the Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State organization (ISIL-Khorasan), under U.S. "Operation Freedom's Sentinel." Amid assessments that the ANDSF is having difficulty preventing gains by the Taliban and other militant groups—exemplified by the insurgent overrunning of the northern city of city of Konduz in late September 2015 and major insurgent gains in Helmand Province—President Obama announced on October 15, 2015, that about 10,000 U.S. military personnel would remain in Afghanistan through almost all of 2016, and fall by the end of 2016 to 5,500. That post-2016 force is significantly larger than the planned post-2016 U.S. force of about 1,000 personnel that was previously announced. However, there reportedly is debate within the Administration whether the United States should maintain current troop levels indefinitely and not reduce to 5,500 by the end of 2016, and perhaps not reduce at all. U.S. officials assert that, despite the apparent deterioration of the security situation, insurgents do not pose a threat to the stability of the government. The government has been allowing local factional militias to regroup in order to help compensate for ANDSF weaknesses, even though militias have often been cited for human rights abuses and arbitrary administration of justice, actions that often increase support for the insurgency. The insurgency also benefits from weak and divided governance in Afghanistan. A dispute over the 2014 presidential election in Afghanistan was settled in September 2014 by a U.S.-brokered solution under which Ashraf Ghani became President and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah was appointed to a new position of Chief Executive Officer of the government. However, differences between Ghani and Abdullah persist over appointments, election reform and the future structure of government, and how to pursue a political settlement in the conflict. Governance is also widely assessed to suffer from widespread official corruption, although Ghani has undertaken anti-corruption initiatives since taking office. Ghani is taking significant steps to try to achieve a negotiated settlement between the Afghan government and insurgent groups by engaging Afghanistan's neighbors. Ghani had some early success in producing negotiations between government officials and Taliban representatives, but talks broke off in mid-2015 because of dissension within the Taliban over the benefits of negotiations and a struggle over succession to Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Umar. Efforts to restart the talks have been undertaken as of late 2015 by the United States, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China. Afghanistan's minorities and women's groups assert concerns that a settlement might produce compromises with the Taliban that erode human rights. A component of U.S. policy to help establish a self-sustaining Afghanistan is to encourage economic development and integration into regional trading patterns. However, Afghanistan will remain dependent on foreign aid for many years. Through the end of FY2014, the United States provided about $100 billion to Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban, of which about 60% has been to equip and train the ANDSF. About $5.7 billion was being provided in FY2015, including $4.1 billion for the ANDSF. For FY2016, the United States is providing $5.3 billion, including $3.8 billion for the ANDSF. The Administration has requested about $4.67 billion for FY2017, of which $3.5 billion is for the ANDSF. These figures do not include funds for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan. See CRS Report RS21922, Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance, by Kenneth Katzman.