LegiStorm

Summary:

This report reviews estimates of fiscal impacts to the federal, state, and local governments of the foreign born who reside in the United States. It examines the academic and policy literature on fiscal impacts of two populations: all U.S. foreign born and unauthorized aliens. Computing such fiscal impacts involves numerous methodological and conceptual challenges, and resulting estimates vary considerably according to the assumptions used, including those about the time frame considered, the treatment of U.S.-born children, the unit of analysis used, and which costs and revenues are included. For the total foreign-born population, the findings of a 1996 analysis commissioned by the National Research Council entitled The New Americans remain authoritative and relevant. The report estimated that each new immigrant at that time, with his or her descendents, would generate an average net fiscal surplus. The authors illustrated how their estimate varied according to foreign-born residents' age composition and educational attainment. Varied assumptions about education generated substantially different impacts. For instance, immigrants with above-average education generated a considerably larger than average net fiscal surplus; those with below-average education levels generated a net fiscal deficit. Reducing the time frame of the analysis to fewer generations changes the average net fiscal surplus into an average net fiscal deficit. This study and others confirm that the foreign born, like the native born, impose their largest costs on U.S. taxpayers as children, through their consumption of public education, and as the elderly, through their consumption of government-funded public health programs. Yet, the majority of the foreign born come to the United States as young adults, where they pay taxes and contribute to programs like Social Security for most of their working lives. Relatively young ages at arrival for most foreign born help explain why many fiscal impact studies found that foreign-born residents generated net fiscal surpluses over the long term. Findings from all of the studies reviewed in this report indicate different impacts at the state and federal levels. Many federal programs, such as Social Security and Medicaid, are oriented toward assisting the elderly, while many state and local level jurisdictions are responsible for services consumed by younger persons, such as public education and criminal justice administration. Foreign-born residents' relatively young age distribution thus accentuates the degree to which states and localities incur greater fiscal costs from the foreign born than the federal government. Fiscal impact studies of unauthorized aliens reach less consensus than those of the total foreign-born population. Three national estimates evaluated in a 1995 General Accounting Office (GAO) report varied considerably and left the agency unable to definitively quantify such fiscal impacts. Subsequent state-level studies emphasized fiscal impacts of costly public services: public education, health care, and law enforcement. Many estimated tax and other fiscal contributions. Studies estimating fiscal impacts for unauthorized aliens are more likely to yield estimated net fiscal deficits than those estimating fiscal impacts for all foreign born, because unauthorized aliens, on average, tend to be younger and less educated. Consequently, they are more likely to use public education for their children and contribute relatively less in tax revenues compared to all foreign born. Given their unauthorized status, they are also less likely themselves to receive public benefits, although their U.S.-born children may be more likely to qualify for such benefits. However, deriving more specific conclusions or estimates from studies of unauthorized aliens reviewed in this report remains elusive due to variation in study design and methodology.