THE PERSIAN GULF: ISSUES FOR U.S. POLICY, 1999 (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
March 17, 1999 |
| Report Number |
RL30093 |
| Report Type |
Report |
| Authors |
Kenneth Katzman, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
The Persian Gulf region contains both challenges and opportunities for the United States in 1999.
Since October 1997, the United States and its partners on the United Nations Security Council have
faced repeated crises with Iraq over its failure to cooperate with U.N.-mandated disarmament efforts.
As 1998 ended, U.N. weapons inspectors from the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM)
reported that they were unable to perform their disarmament mission. They left Iraq just prior to
a 70 hour U.S./British bombing campaign against Iraqi sites that could be used to reconstitute
weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The United States termed the bombing campaign (Operation
Desert Fox) successful in setting back Iraq's missile program and its ability to threaten its neighbors,
but this action left the U.N. Security Council divided over how to encourage Iraq to allow UNSCOM
back into the country. Although hampered in its mission, UNSCOM was viewed by most experts as
the most effective means of determining whether or not Iraq is reconstituting banned WMD
programs.
The prospects for Iran and the United States to end twenty years of hostility have improved
since the unexpected election in May 1997 of a relative moderate, Mohammad Khatemi, as President.
However, Khatemi faces opposition internally from those who subscribe to the radical principles of
the Islamic revolution. In part because of that internal opposition, a rapid and significant
improvement in U.S.-Iran relations has proven elusive. Khatemi has refused a longstanding U.S. offer
to begin a political dialogue, but he has approved increased people-to-people contacts as a means of
rebuilding trust between the two countries. Iran's government did not take up a June 1998 offer by
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to engage in mutual confidence-building measures with Iran
that could provide a "roadmap" to normal relations. The Clinton Administration apparently is waiting
for the infighting in Tehran to subside before renewing its overtures, although it did, in December
1998, remove Iran from the list of major drug producing countries. This move was interpreted by
some in Congress as a concession to Iran.
U.S. efforts to contain the potential threats from Iran and Iraq continue to depend on close
alliances with the Persian Gulf monarchy states and on continuing political stability there. Facing
internal sympathy for the plight of the Iraqi people, some of the Gulf states have begun to grow more
cautious in their support of U.S. efforts to compel Iraq to comply with all applicable U.N. resolutions.
Saudi Arabia refused to allow U.S. combat aircraft to fly from Saudi bases to strike Iraq in Operation
Desert Fox. The Gulf states, faced with low oil prices since 1997, also are worried about potential
political unrest that might result from cutting back the generous social benefits they offer their
citizens. To compensate for falling prices, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar are opening their energy
sectors to increased foreign investment. All the Gulf states are curbing their appetite for new arms
purchases. Although not under significant pressure to do so, some of the Gulf states continued
gradual moves to open their political system, in part to spread the burden of difficult political and
economic choices.
