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Science & Tech Spotlight: COVID-19 Modeling

  Premium   Download PDF Now (2 pages)
Report Type Reports and Testimonies
Report Date June 4, 2020
Release Date June 4, 2020
Report No. GAO-20-582SP
Summary:

Infectious disease models can help guide policy decisions, such as how to allocate health care resources in response to COVID-19. Interpreting them requires understanding their purpose, limitations, and assumptions.

For example, a model may project the need for hospital beds based on the assumption that past trends will continue. But if human behavior changes—for instance, if social distancing is relaxed—then the forecast is likely to be less accurate.

A noted statistician once said, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” In other words, all outbreak models simplify reality but can still help with decisions and to improve understanding.

During the outbreak of a new disease, models can be most helpful early in the response but are likely to be more accurate later in the response.

Illustration showing models are more helpful earlier in response, more accurate later

Illustration showing models are more helpful earlier in response, more accurate later

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