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Infectious Disease Modeling: Opportunities to Improve Coordination and Ensure Reproducibility

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Report Type Reports and Testimonies
Report Date May 13, 2020
Release Date June 4, 2020
Report No. GAO-20-372
Summary:

Outbreaks of infectious diseases—such as novel coronavirus and pandemic flu—have raised concerns about how federal agencies use modeling to predict a disease’s course. Models can help decision makers set disease control policies and allocate resources. If models are unsound, they may not produce the reliable predictions needed to make good decisions.

We examined how Health and Human Services, which includes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, uses and assesses models. We recommended that HHS improve coordination of modeling across agencies and ensure models are reproducible, which helps build confidence in their results.

An HHS employee working on Infectious Disease Planning and Response

Staff, computers, monitors, and projected screens

Staff, computers, monitors, and projected screens

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