Russia's 2008 Presidential Succession (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
Revised March 13, 2008 |
| Report Number |
RL34392 |
| Report Type |
Report |
| Authors |
Stuart D. Goldman, Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
| Older Revisions |
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Summary:
First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, President Putin's chosen successor and long-time protege, was elected President on March 2, 2008, as expected, with about 70% of the vote. There was little real opposition. Medvedev had previously announced that if elected, he would propose Putin as Prime Minister and Putin has said that he will accept this post. The Putin regime has brought TV and radio under tight state control and virtually eliminated effective political opposition, assuring this "transition." The Kremlin's Unified Russia party had previously swept the parliamentary election (December 2, 2007), winning more than two-thirds of the seats in the Duma.
The Russian Constitution limits the president to no more than two consecutive four-year terms. President Putin's second term ends in May 2008. Uncertainty about the post-Putin succession had dominated and roiled Russian politics for most of 2007, until late in the year, when Putin made clear that he would relinquish the presidency and take the position of prime minister after Medvedev was elected president.
Putin's genuine popularity at home, combined with the near-total control that he and his regime exercise over nearly every aspect of the political scene, guaranteed the electoral outcomes sought by the Kremlin. Major questions remain, however, about the configuration of political power after Medvedev succeeds Putin as president. What will be the balance of power between the President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin? Will a diarchy of power be stable? Will Putin seek to regain the presidency after a Medvedev interregnum which would legalize a third (and fourth) non-consecutive term for Putin? The answers to these questions will help determine the course of Russia's political evolution â continuing and consolidating the authoritarianism that Putin has fostered, or moderating that trend. At the same time, Russia's domestic political evolution will likely have a strong influence on its relations with its neighbors, with the EU and NATO, and with the United States. Related CRS reports include CRS Report RL33407, Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests, by Stuart D. Goldman; CRS Report RS22770, Russia's December 2007 Legislative Election: Outcome and Implications, by Jim Nichol; and CRS Report RL32662, Democracy in Russia: Trends and Implications for U.S. Interests, by Jim Nichol. This report will be updated as needed.
