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Medicare: Insolvency Projections (CRS Report for Congress)

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Release Date Revised Oct. 25, 2021
Report Number RS20946
Report Type Report
Authors Patricia A. Davis
Source Agency Congressional Research Service
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Summary:

Medicare is the nation’s health insurance program for persons aged 65 and older and certain disabled persons. Medicare consists of four distinct parts: Part A (Hospital Insurance, or HI); Part B (Supplementary Medical Insurance, or SMI); Part C (Medicare Advantage, or MA); and Part D (the outpatient prescription drug benefit). The Part A program is financed primarily through payroll taxes levied on current workers and their employers; these taxes are credited to the HI Trust Fund. The Part B program is financed through a combination of monthly premiums paid by current enrollees and general revenues. Income from these sources is credited to the SMI Trust Fund. As an alternative, beneficiaries can choose to receive all their Medicare services through private health plans under the MA program; payment is made on beneficiaries’ behalf in appropriate parts from the HI and SMI Trust Funds. The Part D drug benefit is funded through a separate account in the SMI Trust Fund and is financed through general revenues, state contributions, and beneficiary premiums. The HI and SMI Trust Funds are overseen by the Medicare Board of Trustees, which makes an annual report to Congress concerning the financial status of the funds. From its inception, the HI Trust Fund has faced a projected shortfall. The insolvency date has been postponed a number of times, primarily due to legislative changes that have had the effect of restraining growth in program spending. The 2018 Medicare Trustees Report projects that, under intermediate assumptions, the HI Trust Fund will become insolvent in 2026, three years earlier than estimated in the prior year’s report.
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