LegiStorm

Summary:

Some Iraqis are demanding an end to the U.S. military presence in Iraq, in the context of intensified confrontation between the United States and Iran. Tensions increased for months during 2019 as Iran-backed Iraqi militia targeted U.S. and Iraqi military and civilian personnel in a series of rocket attacks, and as unclaimed airstrikes in Iraq targeted Iranian officials and Iraqi militia facilities and personnel. After a rocket attack killed and wounded U.S. contractors in December 2019, President Donald Trump cited U.S. concerns about the imminent threat of new attacks in ordering the U.S. military to kill Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force leader Abu Mahdi al Muhandis in Iraq on January 2, 2020. Days later, the Iraqi Council of Representatives voted to direct the Iraqi government to end operations by international military forces in Iraq. More than 5,000 U.S. military personnel and hundreds of international counterparts remain in Iraq at the government's invitation, subject to bilateral executive-to-executive agreements. The deepening security strains have amplified underlying political disputes among Iraqis over the leadership of their government and the future of Iraq's international orientation and partnerships. Meanwhile, U.S. officials report that Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL) fighters are regrouping in Iraq, and judge that the Iraqi security services lack key capabilities they would need to independently maintain gains made against the Islamic State after years of fighting. For background on Iraq, see CRS Report R45025, Iraq: Background and U.S. Policy. Protests and Transition. A months-long protest movement has swept central and southern Iraq since October 2019. Meanwhile, security force and militia violence against protestors has killed nearly 500 and wounded thousands. The scope, endurance, and professed goals of the current protest movement are unprecedented in Iraq's recent history. The movement is channeling nationalist, nonsectarian sentiment and a range of frustrations into potent rejections of the post-2003 political order, the creation of which many Iraqis attribute to U.S. intervention in Iraq. Protestors are reiterating past demonstrators' concerns and frustrations with the prevailing system's failures while voicing louder, more direct critiques of Iranian political interference than in the past. In response to protestors' demands, Iraq's Prime Minister, Adel Abd al Mahdi, resigned in November 2019 after one year in office. He continues to serve in a caretaker role, and Iraqi political leaders have remained deadlocked over identifying a replacement candidate. Iraq's unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives, has approved new electoral laws, but leaders have not yet agreed on specific plans for holding a new national election. Iraqi domestic debates over corruption, governance, and security, as well as the ongoing regional struggle between Iran and the United States, are shaping the prime ministerial replacement process and will likely shape any forthcoming national election and government formation processes in 2020. The Kurdistan Region. The Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq (KRI) enjoys considerable administrative autonomy under the terms of Iraq's 2005 constitution. Since October 2019, Kurdish leaders have recognized Iraqi Arab protestors' concerns and criticized repressive violence, while convening to unify positions on reforms that some Kurds fear could undermine the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) rights. Most Kurdish members did not participate in the January 2020 COR session requesting the withdrawal of foreign forces. The KRG held a controversial advisory referendum on independence in September 2017, increasing tensions with the national government, which then moved to reassert security control of disputed areas. Iraqi security forces and Kurdish peshmerga fighters are deployed along contested lines of control, as leaders negotiate a host of sensitive issues. Stabilization and Reconstruction. Daunting resettlement, stabilization, and reconstruction needs face Iraqi citizens and leaders in the wake of Iraq's war with the Islamic State group. More than 4.4 million Iraqis uprooted during the war with the Islamic State group have returned to their home communities, but many of the estimated 1.4 million Iraqis who remain internally displaced face significant political, economic, and security barriers to safe and voluntary return. Stabilization efforts in areas recaptured from the Islamic State are underway with United Nations and other international support, but some post-IS stabilization priorities and projects are underfunded. In 2018, Iraq identified $88 billion in reconstruction needs to be met over the next decade. U.S. Policy and Issues for Congress. In general, U.S. engagement in Iraq since 2011 has sought to support Iraq's development as a secure, sovereign democracy. Successive Administrations have trained and supported Iraqi security forces, while expressing concern about Iranian influence. In 2019, Congress appropriated additional military and civilian aid for Iraq without certainty about the future of Iraq's governing arrangements or how change might affect U.S. interests. Having appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars more for Iraq programs and authorized continued military programs through December 2020, Congress may seek to clarify the Trump Administration's intentions toward partnership with Iraq and offer its own perspectives on U.S.-Iraqi relations. Iraq: Map and Country Data / Area: 438,317 sq. km (slightly more than three times the size of New York State) Population: 40.194 million (July 2018 estimate), ~58% are 24 years of age or under Internally Displaced Persons: 1.4 million (October 31, 2019) Religions: Muslim 99% (55-60% Shia, 40% Sunni), Christian <0.1%, Yazidi <0.1% Ethnic Groups: Arab 75-80%; Kurdish 15-20%; Turkmen, Assyrian, Shabak, Yazidi, other ~5%. Gross Domestic Product [GDP; growth rate]: $224.2 billion (2018); -0.6% (2018) Budget (revenues; expenditure; balance): $89 billion, $112 billion, -$23 billion (2019 est.) Percentage of Revenue from Oil Exports: 92% (2018) Current Account Balance: $15.5 billion (2018) Oil and natural gas reserves: 142.5 billion barrels (2017 est., fifth largest); 3.158 trillion meters3 (2017 est.) External Debt: $73.43 billion (2017 est.) Foreign Reserves: ~$64.7 billion (2018) Sources: Graphic created by CRS using data from U.S. State Department and Esri. Country data from CIA, The World Factbook, International Monetary Fund, Iraq Ministry of Finance, and International Organization for Migration. Note: Select cities in bold.