LegiStorm

Summary:

The Social Security program pays monthly benefits to retired or disabled workers and their families and to the family members of deceased workers. Social Security, or Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), is intended to operate primarily as a pay-as-you-go system, where program revenues cover program costs. The OASDI program's revenues and costs are largely determined by economic and demographic factors. The Social Security program is experiencing rising costs and relatively stable income, a trend that is projected to continue for several decades. Although economic and program-specific factors affect the balance between program revenues and costs, research has shown demographic factors to be one of the leading contributors to the increasing imbalance between costs and revenues. The U.S. population has been experiencing a shift in age structure toward older ages and an increase in the median age, termed demographic aging. Two demographic effects have contributed to this aging over time: decreasing fertility and increasing longevity. While aging reflects a society's shared advances in medical, social, and economic matters, it strains the very social insurance systems that provide social support to the aging population. The post-World War II baby boom generation's effect on OASDI highlights this point. Baby boomers, the relatively large cohort resulting from higher fertility rates from 1946 through 1964, have started to exit the paid labor force and collect Social Security benefits. They are being replaced in the workforce by relatively smaller cohorts resulting from lower fertility rates in subsequent generations. Program costs are also rising as an increasing number of retirees collects benefits for longer time periods. According to the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Funds, costs are expected to rise throughout the 75-year projection period, 2019-2093. The Social Security population's changing age distribution is creating a situation in which fewer workers in covered employment are supporting a growing number of people collecting benefits. This relationship is temporarily sustainable, as the OASDI program can draw upon the $2.89 trillion in asset reserves held in the trust funds to augment annual program revenues and fulfill all scheduled benefit payments. However, the OASDI program's ability to pay 100% of scheduled benefits becomes unsustainable when these asset reserves are depleted. The Board of Trustees, which oversees the OASDI Trust Funds, projects the funds' assets to be depleted in 2035 due in part to the cumulative strain placed upon the system by an older age distribution. After this, the OASDI program would operate as a strict pay-as-you-go system that can only pay out in benefits what it receives in revenue. Under current laws and projections, the trustees estimate sufficient revenues to be able to pay about 80% of scheduled benefits after asset reserves are depleted. The Social Security program's ability to cover 100% of scheduled benefits depends upon a combination of increased revenues and decreased benefits. One set of policy options to address the funding shortfall includes increasing the full retirement age (the age at which a beneficiary is entitled to full benefits) or the earliest eligibility age (the age at which a beneficiary is first entitled to benefits). This set of policy options uses a demographic solution for a largely demographic issue: the projected imbalance between program costs and income. Measures that include increasing the retirement ages are estimated to improve the program's long-range financial status but not to prevent trust funds depletion by themselves. Although these adjustments help to reduce rising costs, those costs would still be projected to exceed revenues. This suggests that efforts to avoid depleting the OASDI Trust Funds throughout the trustees' projection period would also be improved by including a revenue-increasing mechanism. In addition, increases in life expectancy are not shared equally within the population; disparities exist when life expectancies are analyzed by sex, race, and income levels. A policy measure that increases Social Security eligibility ages may disproportionally help some beneficiaries and disadvantage others.