Missile Proliferation and the Strategic Balance in South Asia (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
Oct. 17, 2003 |
| Report Number |
RL32115 |
| Report Type |
Report |
| Authors |
Andrew Feickert and K. Alan Kronstadt, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
This report analyzes the policy implications of missile proliferation in South Asia, providing
information on India's and Pakistan's missile programs and their role in regional security. The
report also provides background on the India-Pakistan conflict and the U.S. role, and reviews the
region's strategic security dynamics. The report concludes with a review of key issues and options
for U.S. policy.
The United States has long been concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their
delivery systems in South Asia. This concern became acute after May 1998, when both India and
Pakistan tested nuclear explosive devices. Since that time, both countries have continued testing
nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and both have established command and control authorities to
oversee their nuclear arsenals. India and Pakistan have fought three wars since 1947 and have
significant unsettled territorial disputes. Although the status of weaponization is unclear, a
slow-speed arms race appears to be underway on the Asian Subcontinent, and the proliferation of
missile capabilities in South Asia has been identified as a potentially major threat to regional stability
and to key U.S. foreign policy goals.
A persistent aspect of U.S. engagement in the region has been the difficulty of maintaining a
balanced approach toward two antagonistic countries while simultaneously promoting perceived U.S.
interests. During the 1990s, U.S. security policy toward South Asia focused on preventing weapons
proliferation, but the Bush Administration shifted to a more "pragmatic" approach emphasizing
"restraint" in this area. For perhaps the first period in history the United States currently enjoys
simultaneously positive relations with both countries.
While relationships between the United States, India, and Pakistan have taken on a positive hue,
potential for regional instability persists. The strategic capabilities of India and Pakistan could
provide a ready catalyst for transforming disputes or terrorist incidents into potentially cataclysmic
confrontations. Both countries also are pursuing the development or acquisition of missile defense
systems. It is unknown at this early stage if missile defenses will offer a degree of stability to the
region or if they will create an imbalance, thus prompting the other country to build more missiles
to compensate for the disparity.
Key issues for Congress addressed in this report are the extent to which missile proliferation
in South Asia enhances or upsets regional stability and the role of U.S. policy in promoting such
stability, as well as in tension reduction and nonproliferation. Levels of U.S. foreign assistance to
India and Pakistan, the establishment of aid restrictions, the transfer of conventional weapons
platforms (possibly including missile defense systems), the setting of export control parameters and
nonproliferation goals, and the maintenance of policy and intelligence oversight of U.S. relations
with India and Pakistan constitute additional issues of concern to Congress. This report will be
updated as warranted by events.
