Germany's 'Grand Coalition' Government: Prospects and Implications (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
Jan. 17, 2006 |
| Report Number |
RL33252 |
| Report Type |
Report |
| Authors |
Francis T. Miko, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
A "grand coalition" government of Germany's two largest parties, the Christian Democrat
Union/Christian Socialist Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by CDU
candidate Angela Merkel took office on November 22, 2005, after the German federal election of
September 18, 2005, had produced no clear winner. Some experts believe that the coalition will be
fragile, short lived, and will accomplish little with each side trying to gain political advantage over
the other. Such negative expectations are not shared by other analysts who believe that only such
a large coalition can implement potentially painful but needed economic and social reforms,
assuming that it can overcome partisan politics.
The most difficult and crucial areas on which the coalition must cooperate if the government
is to succeed involve social and economic policy. Government success will be important, not just
for Germany, but also for Europe and global economic health. Experts believe that Angela Merkel,
as Chancellor, wants to speed domestic social and economic reforms. It is not clear whether she will
have broader domestic support to do so, especially among the SPD base.
Many observers expect more continuity than change in German foreign policy under the "grand
coalition" government. On most issues, the CDU/CSU and the SPD are not far apart. Germany is
expected to continue to give priority to multilateral approaches to solving international problems.
Many expect Chancellor Merkel to balance traditional strong Franco-German cooperation within the
EU with closer ties to the United Kingdom, and other countries such as Italy, Spain, and Poland. She
is expected to pursue European integration as a corollary rather than in opposition to the transatlantic
partnership.
U.S. officials and many experts hope for improvement in U.S.-German bilateral relations under
the Merkel-led government. Merkel has given priority to reducing the strains in transatlantic
relations, as well as improving negative German public opinion regarding the United States. The new
German government is unlikely to fundamentally change the German stand on Iraq, meaning that
it will provide some financial and training assistance outside Iraq, but no military personnel on the
ground. It is likely to continue to take a lead in efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Chancellor Merkel
is expected to continue Germany's domestic and international efforts to combat terrorism. The
United States, Germany, and the EU are working together to oppose Iran's development of nuclear
weapons. Chancellor Merkel has indicated that she will not support a lifting of the EU arms
embargo against China, which the United States also opposes. A number of differences are likely
to continue even under the Merkel government, such as on the treatment of terror suspect prisoners,
extra-judicial "renditions," environmental policy, and the International Criminal Court. Chancellor
Merkel's first official visit to Washington and her talks with President Bush on January 13, 2006,
were designed to demonstrate that a new positive chapter had opened in bilateral relations, although
differences were discussed candidly. The two leaders agreed on most points, including the urgency
of addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions. This report will be updated.
