China: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles (CRS Report for Congress)
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| Release Date |
Aug. 10, 2000 |
| Report Number |
97-391 |
| Source Agency |
Congressional Research Service |
Summary:
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is believed to have deployed a nuclear-armed missile
force
of over 100 nuclear warheads, with additional warheads in storage. Deployed in the People's
Liberation Army (PLA)'s Second Artillery, the nuclear-armed ballistic missiles currently launch
single warheads. China's nuclear-armed missile force is deployed with about 25 launchers for the
limited-range DF-4 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), about 25 launchers for the long-range
DF-5A ICBM, about 40 launchers for the older DF-3A medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), and
about 50 launchers for the mobile, solid-fuel DF-21 MRBM. (There may be multiple missiles that
could be re-loaded to some of the launchers.) Most of the PLA's ICBMs are believed to be targeted
at U.S. cities as part of the PRC's second-strike, counter-value, minimum deterrence doctrine,
officially declared as the "no first use" policy. In April 1999, President Clinton stated that the PRC
has fewer than two dozen long-range nuclear weapons, compared to 6,000 in the U.S. arsenal.
China's program to deploy the JL-1 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on a Xia-class
nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) is not yet successful. In the future, the PLA plans
to deploy after 2000 or 2005 the new, more survivable and reliable DF-31 ICBM with a lighter
warhead and the JL-2 SLBM on the new Type 094 SSBN. The DF-31, China's first land-mobile,
solid-fuel ICBM, was first tested in August 1999. In addition, China plans to deploy the land-
mobile, longer-range DF-41 ICBM, perhaps after 2010.
There are also hundreds of increasingly accurate and mobile DF-21A MRBMs and M-9, M-11,
and M-7 short-range ballistic missiles for theater operations, likely armed with conventional
warheads. Since the mid-1990s, the PLA's dramatic build-up and launches (in 1995-96) of theater
missiles have already spurred calls for meeting Taiwan's missile defense needs. In March 2000,
Admiral Dennis Blair, Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific Command, publicly confirmed that the
PLA has deployed about 200 ballistic missiles against Taiwan and is adding 50 more a year.
The PLA's cruise missiles have ranges up to 200 km. (125 mi.), and of these, the HY-3 and the
SS-N-22 Sunburn (that Russia supplied in 2000) are supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. However,
China is reportedly developing longer-range, land attack cruise missiles (LACMs). In 1997, the
Department of Defense reported that China has placed priority on developing LACMs "for theater
warfighting and strategic attack." China's emphasis on its own LACM programs reportedly has been
influenced by the U.S. military's success in using Tomahawk missiles for precision strikes during
the 1991 Persian Gulf War and in conflicts since that war.
While clearly modernizing and expanding its ballistic and cruise missile forces, however, it is
uncertain whether China will substantially build up its currently limited strategic ICBM forces. In
1999, the intelligence community predicted that, by 2015, the PLA is likely to have "a few tens" of
missiles with smaller nuclear warheads (partly benefitting from stolen U.S. technology) that are
capable of targeting the United States. The question remains whether the PRC would further expand
its strategic force to dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of nuclear warheads.
